Nitubara: Breaking down the wild cards

The strengths, weaknesses, X-factors and keys to winning

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Can?Drew Brees pick apart the Lions' defense? Or will Detroit be able to pressure him into some mistakes?

ANALYSIS

updated 4:16 p.m. ET Jan. 4, 2012

Evan Silva

There's no shortage of storylines for the first batch of NFL playoff games, but let's go inside the matchups and explore the crucial areas for each team.

Here's breakdown of the wild-card games on Saturday and Sunday, which focuses on each team's strengths, weaknesses, X-factors and the keys to winnning.

For those who crave even more inside analysis, check out these signature plays teams will be using.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
When: Saturday 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Bengals must: Limit Houston's run game.

This, obviously, is easier said than done. The Texans finished second in the league in regular-season rushing offense as one of just two teams to produce two backs who gained at least 900 yards. Change-of-pace runner Ben Tate is the thunder to feature back Arian Foster's lightning, displaying aggressive, punishing power and surprising speed en route to a 5.4 yards-per-carry average.

Foster is the home-run hitter, ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing despite missing three games. Exceptionally versatile, Foster also ranked third among running backs in receiving yards. With rookie T.J. Yates at quarterback, Tate and Foster are the Texans' offensive foundation. If the Bengals take that away, they'll stay competitive throughout.

Texans must: Make Andy Dalton beat them -- without A.J. Green.

After an impressive start to the year, Dalton faded as defenses figured him out. Whereas the rookie completed 61.5 percent of his passes with a 12:7 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in Cincinnati's first nine games, Dalton's completion rate fell to 54.8 percent with eight TDs and eight turnovers in his final seven outings.

The Texans are equipped to check Green with top cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who routinely shadows opposing top receivers. When the Bengals and Texans met in Week 14, "J-Jo" held Green under 60 yards, and Green got most of them on a 50-50 third-quarter jumpball for a gain of 36. Houston's defense ranks third against the pass, so this will be a difficult matchup for Dalton.

X-Factor: Texans No. 2 tailback Ben Tate.

In these teams' aforementioned Week 14 meeting, the Bengals held Foster in check (41 yards, 15 carries) but were burned by his "backup" Tate for 97 total yards on 11 touches, including an explosive 44-yard first-quarter burst to set up an early field goal. Houston's game plan entering most weeks is typically to get Foster 20 carries and Tate 10, though the latter may pose more matchup problems for Cincinnati's quick but relatively smallish front seven.

Yates separated his left shoulder in Week 17, so the Texans will likely make an effort to limit his number of pass drops. This could lead to more opportunities for Tate off the bench.

Prediction: Texans 23, Bengals 16

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. on NBC

Lions must: Establish their running game early and stay with it.

Scott Linehan's Lions offense was the most lopsided in football this season, leading the league in pass attempts, but ranking 31st in runs. That needs to change. The Saints' primary weakness is run defense after opponents averaged nearly five yards per regular-season carry against Gregg Williams' unit. Williams blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the NFL, often resulting in over-pursuit by linebackers and safeties.

As well as being a way to create ball movement, running the ball consistently and successfully would be an effective means to keep Drew Brees off the field. In all likelihood, Brees is going to win any pass-happy shootout.

Saints must: Keep Calvin Johnson in check.

The Saints executed a take-Megatron-away defensive approach in their Week 13 matchup with these same Lions, double- and triple-teaming Johnson and holding him under 70 yards. Williams used cornerbacks in press coverage with safeties over the top and linebackers in a "cut" technique, jumping in the way of Johnson's slant routes. Detroit's other pass catchers, such as Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson, are largely possession threats with limited playmaking skills. Johnson can single-handedly dominate a game.

X-Factor: Lions tailback Kevin Smith.

In addition to Williams' constant blitzing, the Saints' run defense has suffered due to middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma's decline. Battling chronic knee problems in his eighth season, Vilma no longer possesses sideline-to-sideline range and was never an elite run stuffer. The Vilma liability is especially problematic because the Saints insist on using him as an every-down linebacker, playing on all base downs and in nickel and dime packages.

In Vilma's 11 starts this season, New Orleans has allowed 1,170 yards and nine touchdowns on 228 carries (5.13 YPC). In backup Jo-Lonn Dunbar's five starts inside, the numbers allowed fall to a more passable 568 yards on 123 rushing attempts (4.62 YPC) and only two scores. The Lions can best attack this weakness by running Smith directly at Vilma.

Prediction: Lions 37, Saints 34

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